Derby vs Stoke City: prediction, stats and lineups
Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected corners | 10.2 |
Our model makes Derby 36.0% to win, with the draw at 27.3% and Stoke City at 36.7%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 51.6%, and both teams to score at 54.6%. These figures come from team form, scoring and defensive records, and current bookmaker prices, which carry the heaviest weight. They are rebuilt as kick-off approaches, so a late team-news change is reflected rather than frozen at this morning's numbers.
Confirmed lineups
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