Newcastle vs Aston Villa: prediction, stats and lineups
Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 17:30
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.1% |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.1%) |
| Expected corners | 9.6 |
Our model makes Newcastle 42.6% to win, with the draw at 25.3% and Aston Villa at 32.1%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 60.4%, and both teams to score at 61.9%. These figures come from team form, scoring and defensive records, and current bookmaker prices, which carry the heaviest weight. They are rebuilt as kick-off approaches, so a late team-news change is reflected rather than frozen at this morning's numbers.
Confirmed lineups
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